Repensar Marketing e Estratégia
O Brasil não está em crise
Autor: Alberto Serrentino, sócio-sênior e diretor da GS&MD
Data: 31/10/2008
O atual momento vem afligindo as empresas, envolvidas na tentativa de decifrar a crise financeira internacional e seus possíveis reflexos na economia brasileira. É importante, porém, que se afirme: o Brasil não está em crise!A situação certamente inspira cautela e não pode ser subestimada. O país não está isolado do mundo e sofrerá conseqüências, mas não caminha para crise. As projeções que vêm sendo feitas nas últimas duas semanas carregam elevado grau de incerteza e alta probabilidade de erro. Não há elementos suficientes para se projetar crescimento econômico negativo para a economia brasileira. Deverá haver desaceleração no ritmo de crescimento da economia, do consumo e, conseqüentemente, do varejo, mas não é motivo para pânico.Em 2005 o PIB cresceu 3,2% e o varejo 4,8%; em 2006 o PIB cresceu 3,6% e o varejo, 6,2%. em 2007 o varejo cresceu 9,7% e deve fechar 2008 com 8% de crescimento real. Ainda que não se mantenham os níveis de crescimento atual, não significa que não haverá mercado em expansão e oportunidades para empresas sólidas e bem posicionadas. Além do mais, nenhum outro país no mundo tem a capacidade de empresas e gestores brasileiros em lidar com mudanças bruscas de ambiente, adaptar-se e encontrar alternativas para lidar com adversidades.
Reflexos para o varejo – o desempenho do varejo depende de crescimento econômico, evolução de emprego, renda, massa salarial, crédito e confiança. O crescimento econômico deverá ser menor em 2009 do que foi nos últimos dois anos, mas não há motivos para crer que não será positivo. O crédito deverá estar mais limitado e caro (por encurtamento de prazos e eventuais aumentos de taxas). Em se mantendo os níveis de emprego, renda e massa salarial, o varejo deverá continuar crescendo e poderá crescer acima do PIB.O impacto será diferente entre categorias e setores. Os bens duráveis deverão receber o maior impacto, pela forte dependência do crédito. Particularmente, produtos de linha marrom e informática devem ser mais impactados em função da desvalorização cambial. Porém, essas categorias foram as de melhor desempenho nos últimos anos e mesmo que cresçam em ritmo menor, estarão em patamares elevados.Os bens não-duráveis, como alimentos, cuidados pessoais e limpeza, podem manter desempenho positivo. Finalmente, os semiduráveis, como vestuário e calçados, podem até se beneficiar do cenário, caso as condições de renda e emprego se mantenham favoráveis e o crédito iniba a compra de duráveis.As empresas de varejo provavelmente estarão mais cautelosas em seus planos de expansão, mais criteriosas nos investimentos e mais conservadoras na gestão de crédito e de caixa. Mas é bom lembrar que momentos difíceis também geram oportunidades. No mercado norte-americano, a despeito da turbulência, o presidente do Wal-Mart declarou que esta é a hora da empresa. As vendas estão crescendo, haverá abertura de 191 lojas em 2009 e espera-se ganho de participação de mercado. No Brasil a empresa manterá seus planos de expansão e investimentos previstos para 2009.Quando houve o advento da crise energética no Brasil em 2001 (o “apagão”), previu-se uma forte retração no consumo. Alguns varejistas especializados em eletroeletrônicos, que foram afetados pela situação, redirecionaram esforços para venda de móveis e de produtos com menor consumo energético. Assim, redes como Casas Bahia, Magazine Luiza e Insinuante cresceram durante a adversidade.Consumidores redefinem constantemente as escalas de valores em seus processos decisórios, em função da oferta, conjuntura ou inovações. Na atual conjuntura, tornar-se-ão mais racionais, rigorosos e exigentes, valorizando propostas de valor consistentes e marcas que entregam o que cumprem. Este é o momento de buscar ganhos de eficiência operacional, sem perder de vista a capacidade de diferenciação e atração de um consumidor que estará mais seletivo e ponderado. Esta é a hora das empresas de valor sobressaírem-se e fortalecerem-se no mercado.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Friday, October 31, 2008
Latin America: The Case for Caution
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
October 20, 2008
Economics
Weekly Spotlight
Latin America: The Case for Caution by Gray Newman
As the downturn goes global, Latin America has quickly
lost its “safe haven” status. Indeed, during the past month,
the turmoil in the region has moved beyond falling stock
markets to broader financial markets. Derivative deals gone
bad have already hit some of the largest publicly traded
companies in Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile commercial paper
markets have begun to freeze, trading lines have been reduced,
and a bout of violent currency moves have forced authorities
from Chile and Brazil to Colombia and Mexico to rethink their
exchange rate policies. In the case of Mexico, the rethinking
required the authorities to spend more than 13% of
international reserves in less than two weeks in an attempt to
stabilize the peso. As of October 17, the Mexican peso still
traded near 12.8 per dollar.
Amidst all of the turmoil, caution seems to be the
watchword for Latin watchers. Yet I keep wondering if now
is the time to turn more optimistic and to instead highlight not
only the structural case for Latin America, but also the fact that
the region appears to be in better shape to deal with the current
global downturn than at any time in the past half century.
After all, the time to turn cautious on Latin America was
late last year or early this year when five years of
above-trend global growth had produced one of the best
growth records for Latin America (and emerging economies) in
decades and had, in turn, swollen the ranks of the emerging
market fans.
By late last year, it seemed like everything was in place for
disappointment. On the one hand, our US economics team
was warning of an important downturn in US consumption, and
on the other hand, the advocates for emerging markets and
Latin America had begun to argue a new “safe haven” had
been discovered which would protect investors from US turmoil
if it began to spread. Any doubts about whether we should turn
cautious were resolved once I began to hear the “safe haven”
camp arguments.
Now that the markets have turned and the economies in
the region have begun to weaken, it seems as if all the
“easy extrapolators” are condemning the region to doom.
Where were they before the downturn? Extrapolation is always
the simplest, easiest form of analysis but leaves me
uncomfortable.
But I am not willing to champion Latin America’s
structural story over the cyclical risks, at least not yet, for
three reasons. First, I am concerned that the deterioration in
the region is just getting underway, particularly in the region’s
largest economy, Brazil. And that means that there are plenty
of unknowns to work through after years of abundance.
Second, I am concerned that monetary policy may be of little
aid as the region slows. And third, I am concerned that the
authorities may find that their freedom to use fiscal policy may
be much more constrained than previously thought.
Downturn just starting
The downturn in Latin America is just getting underway.
While Mexico, Colombia and Chile are already slumping, Brazil
and Peru are still posting strong numbers. Peru posted 8.9%
real GDP growth in the month of August, while Brazil saw GDP
accelerate during the first half of the year, reaching 6.1% in the
second quarter, while domestic demand has been growing at
8.5% or higher. Brazil saw retail sales growing at almost 10%
in August. Likewise, industrial production data remained
resilient during much of the third quarter.
It has only been in the past few weeks that we have begun
to see important signs leading to a softening in Brazil. As
Marcelo Carvalho wrote last week, the first signs appeared in
mid-September when international trade financing lines fell to
roughly half of their level earlier in the month. Marcelo notes that
exporters – andcompanies in general - are reportedly lining up
at the national development bank (BNDES), asking for credit.
Meanwhile he cites local press reports that suggest a significant
tightening in local financing, as banks apparently have turned
more cautious in their lending decisions.
In turn, not only long-term financing,but even working capital
seems to have become harder to obtain.
As companies revise down their capex plans, and consumers
turn more cautious, sales of credit-sensitive durable goods
(such as automobiles) look likely to take a hit soon. And there
is talk that Brazil’s agricultural sector may see financing
shortages hitting fertilizer and seed purchases, which could
produce lower crops at the time of harvest. Meanwhile
anecdotal evidence for car sales suggests a sudden and
significant downturn in recent weeks.
And while the downturn may just be getting underway in
Brazil, worrisome pressure points are already emerging
from the currency’s abrupt weakening. We are already seeing
signs in Brazil where years of currency appreciation appears to
have lulled some companies into derivative arrangements that
have begun to turn the other way and hit earnings. Although it
is still too early to estimate how widespread those contracts
have been, the uncertainty is creating difficulties for companies
to access credit. In addition, while Brazil’s central bank took
measures last month designed to allow for larger banks to buy
credit portfolios of the smaller banks, the move served as a
reminder of the importance of international funding of many of
Brazil’s smaller banks.
While much of the demand for dollars may have come as
derivative structures forced the hand of Brazilian
corporates, Brazil’s sharp rise in portfolio flows in recent
years also poses a risk. Despite the strong uptick in foreign
direct investment, combined equity and fixed income flows
exceed that of direct investment . Through
August, Brazil had received nearly $33 billion in portfolio flows
during the past twelve months, just above the $32.7 billion in
direct investment. Our concern is that as the economy slows to
a pace of growth (2% on average in 2009e) below the market’s
consensus, both direct investment and equity portfolio flows
could soften and put more pressure on the exchange rate.
Foreigners currently hold just over one-third of the Brazilian
local stock market as of August. I doubt that Brazil is in the
“second inning” as our global currency strategist Stephen Jen
suggests for EM currencies , but I am
concerned that we are likely to continue to see pressure on the
exchange rate in the coming months as Brazil’s growth slumps
more sharply than most seem to expect.
At first glance, it would seem that Mexico should have
been better prepared for the coming slowdown. After all,
US weakness has already fed through to a downturn in
Mexican industrial activity, which has contracted in every
month since May. And unlike Brazil, Mexico would appear to
have less room to fall—its economy was only growing just over
2% in the first half of the year compared with Brazil’s 6% plus
pace. But the sudden move in the Mexican peso hit some of
Mexico’s best known corporates hard. In turn, the derivative
damage has contributed to the peso coming under additional
pressure, prompting the central bank to directly intervene in
currency markets with sales of $11.2 billion in dollars since
October 8. And the turmoil among corporates with exposure to
derivative losses has contributed to local commercial paper
markets coming to a near standstill.
Although the move in the Mexican peso---nearly 30% weaker
in mid-October compared with its average of the previous two
months—is not that much greater than the moves seen in
Brazil, Colombia or much of the region, the damage on local
sentiment appears to have been much greater. While a
Brazilian real exchange rate at 2.15 or 2.35 represents an
abrupt decline from levels of 1.60 seen in July or August,
Brazilians can remember in 2005 and indeed in 2001 or 2002
when the exchange rate had been at these levels. In contrast,
with the Mexican peso trading during the past decade within a
narrow range from 9 to 10 and then from 10 to 11, the move to
13 and above is seen almost as a promise that has been
betrayed. I fear that the unprecedented exchange rate
readings leave local economic agents more vulnerable to
turmoil. Indeed, I suspect that this is what prompted Banco de
Mexico to engage in massive US dollar sales in an attempt to
break a dangerous cycle of currency weakness begetting
turmoil, which in turn could produce even more demand for
dollars.
Given all of the unknowns regarding the duration of the
downturn in the US and the globe, it seems too early to
begin to look beyond the cycle in Latin America, especially
given the turmoil that we have already seen in the region in the
past weeks. The events of the past few weeks should serve as
a reminder of how quickly the “safe haven” can disappear once
the inflows of abundance have reversed.
Monetary muscle?
The second reason for caution is my concern that central
banks in Latin America may find that they have limited
scope to ease monetary policy faced with one of the most
serious growth challenges in decades. The rapid weakness in
currencies throughout Latin America could easily replace food
and energy quotes as the new threat to inflation targets in the
region.
At a time when real economic activity is coming under
siege, it is difficult to imagine central banks wanting to
keep interest rates high. Around the globe, central banks in
developed economies are easing interest rates. Real policy
rates around the globe had already turned negative at the
beginning of the year in every region except Latin America (see
Exhibit 3). That would suggest that Latin America has room to
ease rates aggressively. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to be
the case in the region’s largest economy, Brazil. Marcelo
Carvalho argues that while the global downturn is deflationary
for the global economy, it is not necessarily so for countries like
Brazil that are facing currency weakness. Indeed, Marcelo
argues that while the central bank may adopt a more pragmatic
approach faced with a much weaker economy, that is only
likely to mean that it doesn’t hike as much as strict adherence
to its inflation target would suggest. In the best of cases, we
see no easing until late next year in Brazil.
Why the contrast between Brazil and the developed
world? In part, because Brazil and much of Latin America
has been the epicenter of inflation not that long ago.
While Germany suffered in the 1920’s and Hungary
in the 1940’s, much of Latin America faced a serious bout of
hyperinflation in the 1980’s and into the early 1990’s. Those
memories have taken their toll on central bank policy makers —
leaving central bankers in the region more willing to respond to
an uptick in prices to limit the risks that a change in relative
prices unleashes a nasty wage-price spiral. Given the track
record, an accommodating central bank in the region that is
easing interest rates as the exchange rate is under pressure
can soon find that its own actions are pressuring the exchange
rate even weaker. Pass-through had gone dormant in the
region, but central bankers are on alert to see if the abrupt
currency moves begin to put pressure on inflation and
expectations despite the weakening in the economy to come.
Fiscal room?
Now is the time for counter-cyclical fiscal policy if there
has ever been a time. But I am cautious as to how much
space the authorities have to engage in fiscal stimulus.
Across the region, the abundance windfall has translated
into a sharp rise in fiscal spending in recent years. Chile is
the only country where the windfall produced a sharp rise in the
budget surplus. And therein lies the problem. With the
exception of Chile, an increase in spending is likely to turn
modest budget deficits into much larger deficits and hence
require that sovereigns increase their reliance on capital
markets precisely at a time when financing is becoming scare
and expensive.
Moreover, we estimate that the budget windfall by
mid-2008 had reached close to 3.9% of GDP among five of
Latin America’s largest economies or nearly $150 billion.
That means that if growth or commodity prices were to return to
pre-abundance rates, the fiscal shortfall would be in the
magnitude of 4.1% of GDP. That is the size of
the spending cuts that the region’s authorities would have to
engineer in order to maintain the current fiscal balance.
Alternatively, the gap represents a rough measure of the
magnitude of new taxes that would have to be raised. In reality,
it suggests an even more daunting task for the fiscal
authorities: just maintaining the current fiscal mix will likely
produce a much larger fiscal deficit.
Bottom-line
Faced with a global downturn, the region’s largest
economies are likely to face a relatively normal business
cycle rather than a full-fledged crisis. That is good news
and represents a graduation from the past for some in the
region. But be wary of over-emphasis on the region’s
resilience. After five years of above trend global growth, the
region is facing its most serious threat in decades and no one is
immune to the slump. Moreover, throughout the region,
authorities may find that the arsenal of policy tools at their
disposal is more limited than they hoped. There is still room for
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
caution.
October 20, 2008
Economics
Weekly Spotlight
Latin America: The Case for Caution by Gray Newman
As the downturn goes global, Latin America has quickly
lost its “safe haven” status. Indeed, during the past month,
the turmoil in the region has moved beyond falling stock
markets to broader financial markets. Derivative deals gone
bad have already hit some of the largest publicly traded
companies in Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile commercial paper
markets have begun to freeze, trading lines have been reduced,
and a bout of violent currency moves have forced authorities
from Chile and Brazil to Colombia and Mexico to rethink their
exchange rate policies. In the case of Mexico, the rethinking
required the authorities to spend more than 13% of
international reserves in less than two weeks in an attempt to
stabilize the peso. As of October 17, the Mexican peso still
traded near 12.8 per dollar.
Amidst all of the turmoil, caution seems to be the
watchword for Latin watchers. Yet I keep wondering if now
is the time to turn more optimistic and to instead highlight not
only the structural case for Latin America, but also the fact that
the region appears to be in better shape to deal with the current
global downturn than at any time in the past half century.
After all, the time to turn cautious on Latin America was
late last year or early this year when five years of
above-trend global growth had produced one of the best
growth records for Latin America (and emerging economies) in
decades and had, in turn, swollen the ranks of the emerging
market fans.
By late last year, it seemed like everything was in place for
disappointment. On the one hand, our US economics team
was warning of an important downturn in US consumption, and
on the other hand, the advocates for emerging markets and
Latin America had begun to argue a new “safe haven” had
been discovered which would protect investors from US turmoil
if it began to spread. Any doubts about whether we should turn
cautious were resolved once I began to hear the “safe haven”
camp arguments.
Now that the markets have turned and the economies in
the region have begun to weaken, it seems as if all the
“easy extrapolators” are condemning the region to doom.
Where were they before the downturn? Extrapolation is always
the simplest, easiest form of analysis but leaves me
uncomfortable.
But I am not willing to champion Latin America’s
structural story over the cyclical risks, at least not yet, for
three reasons. First, I am concerned that the deterioration in
the region is just getting underway, particularly in the region’s
largest economy, Brazil. And that means that there are plenty
of unknowns to work through after years of abundance.
Second, I am concerned that monetary policy may be of little
aid as the region slows. And third, I am concerned that the
authorities may find that their freedom to use fiscal policy may
be much more constrained than previously thought.
Downturn just starting
The downturn in Latin America is just getting underway.
While Mexico, Colombia and Chile are already slumping, Brazil
and Peru are still posting strong numbers. Peru posted 8.9%
real GDP growth in the month of August, while Brazil saw GDP
accelerate during the first half of the year, reaching 6.1% in the
second quarter, while domestic demand has been growing at
8.5% or higher. Brazil saw retail sales growing at almost 10%
in August. Likewise, industrial production data remained
resilient during much of the third quarter.
It has only been in the past few weeks that we have begun
to see important signs leading to a softening in Brazil. As
Marcelo Carvalho wrote last week, the first signs appeared in
mid-September when international trade financing lines fell to
roughly half of their level earlier in the month. Marcelo notes that
exporters – andcompanies in general - are reportedly lining up
at the national development bank (BNDES), asking for credit.
Meanwhile he cites local press reports that suggest a significant
tightening in local financing, as banks apparently have turned
more cautious in their lending decisions.
In turn, not only long-term financing,but even working capital
seems to have become harder to obtain.
As companies revise down their capex plans, and consumers
turn more cautious, sales of credit-sensitive durable goods
(such as automobiles) look likely to take a hit soon. And there
is talk that Brazil’s agricultural sector may see financing
shortages hitting fertilizer and seed purchases, which could
produce lower crops at the time of harvest. Meanwhile
anecdotal evidence for car sales suggests a sudden and
significant downturn in recent weeks.
And while the downturn may just be getting underway in
Brazil, worrisome pressure points are already emerging
from the currency’s abrupt weakening. We are already seeing
signs in Brazil where years of currency appreciation appears to
have lulled some companies into derivative arrangements that
have begun to turn the other way and hit earnings. Although it
is still too early to estimate how widespread those contracts
have been, the uncertainty is creating difficulties for companies
to access credit. In addition, while Brazil’s central bank took
measures last month designed to allow for larger banks to buy
credit portfolios of the smaller banks, the move served as a
reminder of the importance of international funding of many of
Brazil’s smaller banks.
While much of the demand for dollars may have come as
derivative structures forced the hand of Brazilian
corporates, Brazil’s sharp rise in portfolio flows in recent
years also poses a risk. Despite the strong uptick in foreign
direct investment, combined equity and fixed income flows
exceed that of direct investment . Through
August, Brazil had received nearly $33 billion in portfolio flows
during the past twelve months, just above the $32.7 billion in
direct investment. Our concern is that as the economy slows to
a pace of growth (2% on average in 2009e) below the market’s
consensus, both direct investment and equity portfolio flows
could soften and put more pressure on the exchange rate.
Foreigners currently hold just over one-third of the Brazilian
local stock market as of August. I doubt that Brazil is in the
“second inning” as our global currency strategist Stephen Jen
suggests for EM currencies , but I am
concerned that we are likely to continue to see pressure on the
exchange rate in the coming months as Brazil’s growth slumps
more sharply than most seem to expect.
At first glance, it would seem that Mexico should have
been better prepared for the coming slowdown. After all,
US weakness has already fed through to a downturn in
Mexican industrial activity, which has contracted in every
month since May. And unlike Brazil, Mexico would appear to
have less room to fall—its economy was only growing just over
2% in the first half of the year compared with Brazil’s 6% plus
pace. But the sudden move in the Mexican peso hit some of
Mexico’s best known corporates hard. In turn, the derivative
damage has contributed to the peso coming under additional
pressure, prompting the central bank to directly intervene in
currency markets with sales of $11.2 billion in dollars since
October 8. And the turmoil among corporates with exposure to
derivative losses has contributed to local commercial paper
markets coming to a near standstill.
Although the move in the Mexican peso---nearly 30% weaker
in mid-October compared with its average of the previous two
months—is not that much greater than the moves seen in
Brazil, Colombia or much of the region, the damage on local
sentiment appears to have been much greater. While a
Brazilian real exchange rate at 2.15 or 2.35 represents an
abrupt decline from levels of 1.60 seen in July or August,
Brazilians can remember in 2005 and indeed in 2001 or 2002
when the exchange rate had been at these levels. In contrast,
with the Mexican peso trading during the past decade within a
narrow range from 9 to 10 and then from 10 to 11, the move to
13 and above is seen almost as a promise that has been
betrayed. I fear that the unprecedented exchange rate
readings leave local economic agents more vulnerable to
turmoil. Indeed, I suspect that this is what prompted Banco de
Mexico to engage in massive US dollar sales in an attempt to
break a dangerous cycle of currency weakness begetting
turmoil, which in turn could produce even more demand for
dollars.
Given all of the unknowns regarding the duration of the
downturn in the US and the globe, it seems too early to
begin to look beyond the cycle in Latin America, especially
given the turmoil that we have already seen in the region in the
past weeks. The events of the past few weeks should serve as
a reminder of how quickly the “safe haven” can disappear once
the inflows of abundance have reversed.
Monetary muscle?
The second reason for caution is my concern that central
banks in Latin America may find that they have limited
scope to ease monetary policy faced with one of the most
serious growth challenges in decades. The rapid weakness in
currencies throughout Latin America could easily replace food
and energy quotes as the new threat to inflation targets in the
region.
At a time when real economic activity is coming under
siege, it is difficult to imagine central banks wanting to
keep interest rates high. Around the globe, central banks in
developed economies are easing interest rates. Real policy
rates around the globe had already turned negative at the
beginning of the year in every region except Latin America (see
Exhibit 3). That would suggest that Latin America has room to
ease rates aggressively. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to be
the case in the region’s largest economy, Brazil. Marcelo
Carvalho argues that while the global downturn is deflationary
for the global economy, it is not necessarily so for countries like
Brazil that are facing currency weakness. Indeed, Marcelo
argues that while the central bank may adopt a more pragmatic
approach faced with a much weaker economy, that is only
likely to mean that it doesn’t hike as much as strict adherence
to its inflation target would suggest. In the best of cases, we
see no easing until late next year in Brazil.
Why the contrast between Brazil and the developed
world? In part, because Brazil and much of Latin America
has been the epicenter of inflation not that long ago.
While Germany suffered in the 1920’s and Hungary
in the 1940’s, much of Latin America faced a serious bout of
hyperinflation in the 1980’s and into the early 1990’s. Those
memories have taken their toll on central bank policy makers —
leaving central bankers in the region more willing to respond to
an uptick in prices to limit the risks that a change in relative
prices unleashes a nasty wage-price spiral. Given the track
record, an accommodating central bank in the region that is
easing interest rates as the exchange rate is under pressure
can soon find that its own actions are pressuring the exchange
rate even weaker. Pass-through had gone dormant in the
region, but central bankers are on alert to see if the abrupt
currency moves begin to put pressure on inflation and
expectations despite the weakening in the economy to come.
Fiscal room?
Now is the time for counter-cyclical fiscal policy if there
has ever been a time. But I am cautious as to how much
space the authorities have to engage in fiscal stimulus.
Across the region, the abundance windfall has translated
into a sharp rise in fiscal spending in recent years. Chile is
the only country where the windfall produced a sharp rise in the
budget surplus. And therein lies the problem. With the
exception of Chile, an increase in spending is likely to turn
modest budget deficits into much larger deficits and hence
require that sovereigns increase their reliance on capital
markets precisely at a time when financing is becoming scare
and expensive.
Moreover, we estimate that the budget windfall by
mid-2008 had reached close to 3.9% of GDP among five of
Latin America’s largest economies or nearly $150 billion.
That means that if growth or commodity prices were to return to
pre-abundance rates, the fiscal shortfall would be in the
magnitude of 4.1% of GDP. That is the size of
the spending cuts that the region’s authorities would have to
engineer in order to maintain the current fiscal balance.
Alternatively, the gap represents a rough measure of the
magnitude of new taxes that would have to be raised. In reality,
it suggests an even more daunting task for the fiscal
authorities: just maintaining the current fiscal mix will likely
produce a much larger fiscal deficit.
Bottom-line
Faced with a global downturn, the region’s largest
economies are likely to face a relatively normal business
cycle rather than a full-fledged crisis. That is good news
and represents a graduation from the past for some in the
region. But be wary of over-emphasis on the region’s
resilience. After five years of above trend global growth, the
region is facing its most serious threat in decades and no one is
immune to the slump. Moreover, throughout the region,
authorities may find that the arsenal of policy tools at their
disposal is more limited than they hoped. There is still room for
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
caution.
Vendas dos supermercados crescem 5,53%
Vendas dos supermercados crescem 5,53%
As vendas dos supermercados brasileiros tiveram em setembro uma alta de 5,53% em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, em termos reais, de acordo com a Associação Brasileira de Supermercados (Abras). Em relação a agosto, houve queda de 5,63%. No ano, o setor acumula uma alta de 8,93%, em valores deflacionados pelo IPCA do IBGE. A entidade considerou bastante positiva a manutenção do crescimento, mesmo com o vento contrário vindo do cenário internacional. No mês passado, a Abras disse que espera para o ano uma expansão em torno de 8% nas vendas do setor.
(posted by KAtya Hochleitner)
As vendas dos supermercados brasileiros tiveram em setembro uma alta de 5,53% em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, em termos reais, de acordo com a Associação Brasileira de Supermercados (Abras). Em relação a agosto, houve queda de 5,63%. No ano, o setor acumula uma alta de 8,93%, em valores deflacionados pelo IPCA do IBGE. A entidade considerou bastante positiva a manutenção do crescimento, mesmo com o vento contrário vindo do cenário internacional. No mês passado, a Abras disse que espera para o ano uma expansão em torno de 8% nas vendas do setor.
(posted by KAtya Hochleitner)
Varejo mexicano deve encolher em 2008
Varejo mexicano deve encolher em 2008
As vendas do varejo mexicano deverão cair 1% neste ano pelo critério mesmas lojas, devido ao desaquecimento da economia. A estimativa é da Antad, entidade eu reúne os 100 maiores varejistas do país. As vendas em lojas de departamentos devem recuar 5%, mas nos supermercados é esperada uma expansão de 1,5%. Se concretizado, o resultado anual mostrará uma piora em relação ao acumulado dos primeiros três trimestres de 2009, com queda de 0,1% em mesmas lojas.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
As vendas do varejo mexicano deverão cair 1% neste ano pelo critério mesmas lojas, devido ao desaquecimento da economia. A estimativa é da Antad, entidade eu reúne os 100 maiores varejistas do país. As vendas em lojas de departamentos devem recuar 5%, mas nos supermercados é esperada uma expansão de 1,5%. Se concretizado, o resultado anual mostrará uma piora em relação ao acumulado dos primeiros três trimestres de 2009, com queda de 0,1% em mesmas lojas.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Confiança do consumidor americano despenca
Confiança do consumidor americano despenca
O Índice de Confiança do Consumidor calculado nos Estados Unidos pela Conference Board despencou no mês de setembro, recuando de 61,4 para 38 pontos, em uma escala de zero a 100. O componente que mede a situação presente da economia caiu de 61 para 42 pontos, enquanto o de expectativas sobre o futuro foi de 61,5 para 35,5. A queda era esperada, devido à crise financeira. o declínio de 23,4 pontos foi o terceiro maior da história da pesquisa. E, a julgar pelas avaliações negativas sobre o futuro da economia, o índice deve continuar caindo nos próximos meses.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
O Índice de Confiança do Consumidor calculado nos Estados Unidos pela Conference Board despencou no mês de setembro, recuando de 61,4 para 38 pontos, em uma escala de zero a 100. O componente que mede a situação presente da economia caiu de 61 para 42 pontos, enquanto o de expectativas sobre o futuro foi de 61,5 para 35,5. A queda era esperada, devido à crise financeira. o declínio de 23,4 pontos foi o terceiro maior da história da pesquisa. E, a julgar pelas avaliações negativas sobre o futuro da economia, o índice deve continuar caindo nos próximos meses.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Families Will Gather Round the Holiday Table -- but Over Cheap Eats
link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE
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AdAge
Families Will Gather Round the Holiday Table -- but Over Cheap Eats
IRI: Private Labels, Big-Box Retailers to Benefit as Consumers Say They're Belt-Tightening
By Jack Neff Published: October 29, 2008
BATAVIA, Ohio (AdAge.com) -- It's going to be a private-label Christmas, or so data from an Information Resources Inc. survey of 1,000 consumers indicate. The firm projects consumer spending to hold up at around 2007 levels, though consumers will hunt hard for bargains and be reluctant to use credit cards. In a survey completed within the past two weeks, respondents said they'll place more emphasis on holiday traditions, family get-togethers and religious observance as a counterweight to the so-called misery index of rising unemployment and prices, said Thom Blischok, president-innovation and consulting for IRI. That includes 94% of consumers who said spending time with family and 80% who said holiday meals and entertaining would be more important this year than last. No fancy brands on the table But while 69% plan to spend about the same on holiday meals this year, nearly twice as many (20%) plan to spend less than more (11%). A whopping 91% said they would put private-label foods on the family table, and 51% said they would use private-label products whenever possible -- numbers well above the usual 30% to 35% preference for private label in such polls, Mr. Blischok said.
Related Stories:
Nothing Scary About Predicted Halloween Spending
NRF: Sales Will Grow 14% for Holiday; Only 2.2% for Christmas Season
Other budget-control practices appear to be on an upswing, too, he said, with 69% of shoppers saying they're more likely to make lists of needed items and 58% saying they will use newspaper coupons and seek out more in-store deals compared to last year. Rising prices of food, gasoline and utilities ranked well ahead of the recession, stability of financial institutions or even of jobs among influences on consumer-shopping decisions in the IRI study. But even the recent decline of gas prices doesn't appear yet to have buoyed consumer sentiment much, Mr. Blischok said. Of consumers in the survey, 61% said they plan fewer holiday shopping trips this year than last, and 41% plan to shop online more, though Mr. Blischok believes lower gas prices may induce more trips. The survey also found about 21% of shoppers plan to shop earlier this year -- mainly to find better deals -- compared to 10% who plan to shop later. Wal-Mart, Costco could be big winners Mr. Blischok predicted big-box stores such as Wal-Mart and Costco could be the big winners this year, possibly drawing shoppers from department and specialty stores by convincing consumers they can save enough on food to cross the aisle for gifts. "The gift giving is going to change to more functional and affordable products," Mr. Blischok said. "Expect to see things like home beauty treatments, home facials, big-screen TVs, affordable, functional sweaters. Not a lot of fad stuff. ... People expect to get the same number of gifts, but to get them a little cheaper than last year." More than 90% of consumers plan to use their credit cards the same or less, IRI said, extending the "deleveraging" in the rest of the economy. Holiday travel is under particularly severe pressure, as 30% of respondents said they plan to spend less on it and another 12% who traveled last year don't plan to do so at all. Only 15% plan to spend more on travel this year. If anything, the IRI survey paints a relatively rosy picture compared to the Consumer Confidence Index, which plunged to a record low of 38 in October from 61.4 in September as the global financial crisis drained what little buying spirit consumers had left, the Conference Board said today. The 38% drop off already-depressed levels takes the index to its lowest point since it was instituted in 1967. "This news does not bode well for retailers," Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's chief economist, said in a statement.
posted by Tais Nicolleti
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AdAge
Families Will Gather Round the Holiday Table -- but Over Cheap Eats
IRI: Private Labels, Big-Box Retailers to Benefit as Consumers Say They're Belt-Tightening
By Jack Neff Published: October 29, 2008
BATAVIA, Ohio (AdAge.com) -- It's going to be a private-label Christmas, or so data from an Information Resources Inc. survey of 1,000 consumers indicate. The firm projects consumer spending to hold up at around 2007 levels, though consumers will hunt hard for bargains and be reluctant to use credit cards. In a survey completed within the past two weeks, respondents said they'll place more emphasis on holiday traditions, family get-togethers and religious observance as a counterweight to the so-called misery index of rising unemployment and prices, said Thom Blischok, president-innovation and consulting for IRI. That includes 94% of consumers who said spending time with family and 80% who said holiday meals and entertaining would be more important this year than last. No fancy brands on the table But while 69% plan to spend about the same on holiday meals this year, nearly twice as many (20%) plan to spend less than more (11%). A whopping 91% said they would put private-label foods on the family table, and 51% said they would use private-label products whenever possible -- numbers well above the usual 30% to 35% preference for private label in such polls, Mr. Blischok said.
Related Stories:
Nothing Scary About Predicted Halloween Spending
NRF: Sales Will Grow 14% for Holiday; Only 2.2% for Christmas Season
Other budget-control practices appear to be on an upswing, too, he said, with 69% of shoppers saying they're more likely to make lists of needed items and 58% saying they will use newspaper coupons and seek out more in-store deals compared to last year. Rising prices of food, gasoline and utilities ranked well ahead of the recession, stability of financial institutions or even of jobs among influences on consumer-shopping decisions in the IRI study. But even the recent decline of gas prices doesn't appear yet to have buoyed consumer sentiment much, Mr. Blischok said. Of consumers in the survey, 61% said they plan fewer holiday shopping trips this year than last, and 41% plan to shop online more, though Mr. Blischok believes lower gas prices may induce more trips. The survey also found about 21% of shoppers plan to shop earlier this year -- mainly to find better deals -- compared to 10% who plan to shop later. Wal-Mart, Costco could be big winners Mr. Blischok predicted big-box stores such as Wal-Mart and Costco could be the big winners this year, possibly drawing shoppers from department and specialty stores by convincing consumers they can save enough on food to cross the aisle for gifts. "The gift giving is going to change to more functional and affordable products," Mr. Blischok said. "Expect to see things like home beauty treatments, home facials, big-screen TVs, affordable, functional sweaters. Not a lot of fad stuff. ... People expect to get the same number of gifts, but to get them a little cheaper than last year." More than 90% of consumers plan to use their credit cards the same or less, IRI said, extending the "deleveraging" in the rest of the economy. Holiday travel is under particularly severe pressure, as 30% of respondents said they plan to spend less on it and another 12% who traveled last year don't plan to do so at all. Only 15% plan to spend more on travel this year. If anything, the IRI survey paints a relatively rosy picture compared to the Consumer Confidence Index, which plunged to a record low of 38 in October from 61.4 in September as the global financial crisis drained what little buying spirit consumers had left, the Conference Board said today. The 38% drop off already-depressed levels takes the index to its lowest point since it was instituted in 1967. "This news does not bode well for retailers," Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's chief economist, said in a statement.
posted by Tais Nicolleti
Thursday, October 23, 2008
BOJ downgrades all regional economies
BOJ downgrades all regional economies
High energy and raw materials costs, declining exports blamed
Kyodo News
The Bank of Japan downgraded its economic assessment of all nine regions Monday, citing the negative impact of high energy and raw materials costs as well as decreasing exports due to the slowdown in the global economy.
Bad news day: Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa (center) attends a meeting of BOJ regional branch managers at the central bank Monday. KYODO PHOTO
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BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Japan's economy is highly likely to remain "sluggish for the time being as it becomes clear that the world's economy is slowing."
The downgrading in the BOJ's quarterly Sakura Report, which was released during a meeting of BOJ branch managers, added to the view that the economy has completely halted its longest postwar expansion phase amid the deepening credit turmoil.
The BOJ began releasing the report in April 2005. This was the first in which the central bank cut the assessment on all of Japan's nine regions at the same time.
"Economic growth had been sluggish in general, mainly due to the effects of earlier increases in energy and materials prices and weaker growth in exports, although there were some regional differences," the report says.
It underlines that the economy has lost steam, with individuals reluctant to spend their money under pressure from rising gasoline, food and other daily goods amid slow growth in their income.
The nine regions are Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Kanto-Koshinetsu, Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu-Okinawa.
At the meeting of the central bank's 32 branch managers, Shirakawa said corporate and household demand could slow further given the lingering effects of high oil and other commodity prices.
The BOJ chief also said an increasing number of bankruptcies has made credit conditions tighter with smaller firms having trouble raising fresh capital.
He gave little indication about future monetary policy, reiterating the BOJ will closely monitor upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
His warning followed the result of the central bank's latest "tankan" survey, released earlier this month, which showed that business sentiment at large manufacturers, a key component, had fallen to its lowest level in more than five years.
The terms of trade are improving, Shirakawa said, but added their earlier deterioration has generated "downside risks" to private-sector demand even as commodity prices have started to decline.
The global financial crisis remains the biggest source of concern for the BOJ.
The money market is maintaining a relatively "stable condition" in spite of the credit turmoil, compared with markets in the United States and Europe, he said, while warning the crisis in the global financial market could spread further and affect the wider real economy.
There are more companies going under in the real estate and construction industries, which are believed to be under the influence of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, he said.
The BOJ is closely watching developments and the "increasing tendency of credit costs," with more banks wary of extending fresh loans, he said.
August CI clipped
The government on Monday slightly revised downward a key economic gauge for August but left unchanged its basic assessment of the economy for that month as "worsening."
The Cabinet Office said the composite index of coincident economic indicators for August stood at 100.6 against 100 for the base year of 2005, down from a preliminary reading of 100.7 released earlier this month.
The revised reading represents a drop of 2.9 points from July.
The office adopted the composite index, or CI, as the mainstay gauge of the economy in place of the diffusion index, or DI, starting with its April survey. The CI is considered more helpful in measuring the degree and pace of change in each indicator than the DI.
The composite index of leading economic indicators, which predicts economic developments over the coming months, was revised downward from a preliminary 89.3 to 89.0, down 2.4 points from July.
The index of lagging indicators, which measures economic performance in the recent past, was revised upward to 100.5 from a preliminary 100.2, but was still down 0.5 point from July.
(posted by Nathalie, Building Brands)
High energy and raw materials costs, declining exports blamed
Kyodo News
The Bank of Japan downgraded its economic assessment of all nine regions Monday, citing the negative impact of high energy and raw materials costs as well as decreasing exports due to the slowdown in the global economy.
Bad news day: Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa (center) attends a meeting of BOJ regional branch managers at the central bank Monday. KYODO PHOTO
window.google_render_ad();
BOJ Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Japan's economy is highly likely to remain "sluggish for the time being as it becomes clear that the world's economy is slowing."
The downgrading in the BOJ's quarterly Sakura Report, which was released during a meeting of BOJ branch managers, added to the view that the economy has completely halted its longest postwar expansion phase amid the deepening credit turmoil.
The BOJ began releasing the report in April 2005. This was the first in which the central bank cut the assessment on all of Japan's nine regions at the same time.
"Economic growth had been sluggish in general, mainly due to the effects of earlier increases in energy and materials prices and weaker growth in exports, although there were some regional differences," the report says.
It underlines that the economy has lost steam, with individuals reluctant to spend their money under pressure from rising gasoline, food and other daily goods amid slow growth in their income.
The nine regions are Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, Kanto-Koshinetsu, Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu-Okinawa.
At the meeting of the central bank's 32 branch managers, Shirakawa said corporate and household demand could slow further given the lingering effects of high oil and other commodity prices.
The BOJ chief also said an increasing number of bankruptcies has made credit conditions tighter with smaller firms having trouble raising fresh capital.
He gave little indication about future monetary policy, reiterating the BOJ will closely monitor upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
His warning followed the result of the central bank's latest "tankan" survey, released earlier this month, which showed that business sentiment at large manufacturers, a key component, had fallen to its lowest level in more than five years.
The terms of trade are improving, Shirakawa said, but added their earlier deterioration has generated "downside risks" to private-sector demand even as commodity prices have started to decline.
The global financial crisis remains the biggest source of concern for the BOJ.
The money market is maintaining a relatively "stable condition" in spite of the credit turmoil, compared with markets in the United States and Europe, he said, while warning the crisis in the global financial market could spread further and affect the wider real economy.
There are more companies going under in the real estate and construction industries, which are believed to be under the influence of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, he said.
The BOJ is closely watching developments and the "increasing tendency of credit costs," with more banks wary of extending fresh loans, he said.
August CI clipped
The government on Monday slightly revised downward a key economic gauge for August but left unchanged its basic assessment of the economy for that month as "worsening."
The Cabinet Office said the composite index of coincident economic indicators for August stood at 100.6 against 100 for the base year of 2005, down from a preliminary reading of 100.7 released earlier this month.
The revised reading represents a drop of 2.9 points from July.
The office adopted the composite index, or CI, as the mainstay gauge of the economy in place of the diffusion index, or DI, starting with its April survey. The CI is considered more helpful in measuring the degree and pace of change in each indicator than the DI.
The composite index of leading economic indicators, which predicts economic developments over the coming months, was revised downward from a preliminary 89.3 to 89.0, down 2.4 points from July.
The index of lagging indicators, which measures economic performance in the recent past, was revised upward to 100.5 from a preliminary 100.2, but was still down 0.5 point from July.
(posted by Nathalie, Building Brands)
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