25/11/2008 - 08h45
Confiança do consumidor em novembro atinge menor nível desde 2005, diz FGV
da Folha Online
O ICC (Índice de Confiança do Consumidor) da FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas) teve queda de 4,2% em novembro, ao passar de 101,1 para 96,9 pontos, o menor nível da série histórica iniciada em setembro de 2005. Em relação a novembro de 2007, o índice teve queda de 15,2%. Os dados constam da pesquisa Sondagem de Expectativas do Consumidor, divulgada nesta terça-feira.
O ISA (Índice da Situação Atual) caiu 5,7%, para 98,1 pontos, e o IE (Índice de Expectativas) caiu 3,3%, para 96,2 pontos, na comparação com outubro. Na comparação com novembro de 2007, as quedas nos índices foram de 11,9% e 17%, respectivamente.
"Em novembro, a queda do índice foi influenciada principalmente pela pior avaliação do consumidor a respeito da situação financeira familiar e pelo menor ímpeto para compras de bens duráveis nos próximos meses", diz o comunicado da FGV.
A parcela dos que avaliam a situação financeira da família como boa caiu de 20,6% para 17% entre outubro e novembro, enquanto a proporção dos que a avaliam como ruim aumentou de 13,9% para 16,1% do total, segundo a pesquisa. Em relação às compras de bens duráveis, a parcela dos que pretendem gastar mais nos próximos seis meses diminuiu de 17,5% para 14,4%. Já a dos que planejam gastar menos aumentou de 32,9% para 35,6%.
A Sondagem de Expectativas do Consumidor é realizada com base numa amostra de mais de 2.000 domicílios em sete das principais capitais brasileiras. A coleta de dados para a edição de novembro foi realizada entre os dias 31 de outubro e 19 deste mês.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Best Buy, Other Retailers Having Nightmares of a Blue Christmas
Best Buy, Other Retailers Having Nightmares of a Blue Christmas
Marketers Revise Budgets, Emphasize Value Amid Low Profits, Confidence
Published: November 17, 2008
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Alarm bells, not sleigh bells, are sounding at retailers across the country.As Thanksgiving approaches, what has long looked to be simply a dismal holiday is morphing into something far worse: a bloodbath that could sink full-year earnings and have repercussions well into 2009. Last week alone, Circuit City filed for bankruptcy; Best Buy warned of dire holiday sales; and Macy's, Kohl's, JCPenney and Nordstrom posted sharply lower third-quarter profits. On Nov. 14, Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed consumer confidence at historically low levels.
Best Buy Senior VP-Marketing Greg Johnson All of this has left retailers to recalibrate ad spending and emphasize value -- but each is trying a different approach. Best Buy is spending less and pushing a message of reliability, while Kohl's is pouring on the holiday dollars to pitch pricing. Macy's has moved some of its allocation from the third quarter to the all-important fourth and is using a mix of image ads and promotional sells. Sears is bringing back layaway, while sibling retailer Kmart is advertising layaway for the first time in years. JCPenney is holding spending steady behind a "Style. Quality. Price matter" campaign. Best Buy Senior VP-Marketing Greg Johnson said the retailer has been forced to "dial back" spending in light of the economic meltdown. Last year it spent $136 million during the fourth quarter. "We had to right-size our marketing plan," he said. "We have maintained the heart of the plan. But some of the things ... we do each year that are a little more speculative and harder to measure, those are the things that we dialed back on." Mr. Johnson cited sponsorships on destination websites as an example. "Being present in a lot of places was important historically," he said. "But the reality was we weren't communicating something that would drive our business. ... That investment, which is relatively significant, is something that we couldn't afford in this environment." Best Buy's creative agency is Omnicom Group's BBDO, New York; digital is handled by Razorfish, Seattle and Portland, Ore. Shelling outSome retailers have managed to pump up their marketing budgets for the fourth quarter, recognizing that it will be a rough-and-tumble fight for consumer dollars. Kohl's plans to spend more this year than last, when its fourth-quarter measured media spending tallied $158 million. Macy's moved marketing dollars from the third quarter to the fourth in an effort to drive traffic around the holidays. In last year's fourth quarter, Macy's spent $341 million on measured media, according to TNS Media Intelligence. With those fourth-quarter budgets, which represent the largest chunk of any retailer's annual outlay, marketing executives are embracing a variety of approaches. Best Buy's campaign will put the emphasis on trust, a message that has gained new relevance in light of Circuit City's bankruptcy. New TV spots feature employees sharing true stories about helping consumers pick out holiday gifts. Localized web pages for individual stores also have been created. Previous holiday campaigns have focused simply on making Best Buy a gifting destination, Mr. Johnson said. "Part of being trusted is you actually have to be a part of the community," he said. Macy's is also seeking to endear itself to local communities with the "Believe" campaign, which revolves around the 1897 New York Sun editorial that declared "Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus." For each letter to Santa mailed at a Macy's, the retailer will donate $1 (up to $1 million) to the Make-a-Wish Foundation. Part of getting that message out locally is a massive newspaper campaign orchestrated with the Newspaper Association of America, said Martine Reardon, Macy's exec VP-marketing. Full-page reprints of the "Yes, Virginia" letter and ads will be carried in more than 300 papers. The campaign also pumps up the retailer's branding message at a time when competitors are shelving branding in favor of promotion. "Believe" plays up Macy's Christmas credentials -- the annual Thanksgiving Day Parade and the first in-store Santa -- and delivers a reprieve to weary shoppers, Ms. Reardon said. Price points"At some point people are going to get tired of talking about the malaise of the economy and only wanting to focus on price. They want to know that you've got some other substance," she said. Its creative agency is WPP Group's JWT, New York. Kohl's Chief Marketing Officer Julie Gardner said it's not possible for the retailer to be too value-oriented this season. Its message, "Gifts that fit your budget beautifully," will be pushed out across a variety of media. Its agency is Interpublic Group of Cos.' McCann Erickson, New York. JCPenney, meanwhile, is being careful to present actual price points rather than percentage-off messaging. Its tagline, "Style. Quality. Price matter. Every day matters," will be featured in promotional advertising. Total spending for the holiday season will be flat, said Chief Marketing Officer Mike Boylson. JCPenney spent $169 million in the fourth quarter last year. "This year we're making sure that we're razor-sharp about messaging and pricing," Mr. Boylson said. JCPenney's agency is Publicis Groupe's Saatchi & Saatchi, New York.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Marketers Revise Budgets, Emphasize Value Amid Low Profits, Confidence
Published: November 17, 2008
NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Alarm bells, not sleigh bells, are sounding at retailers across the country.As Thanksgiving approaches, what has long looked to be simply a dismal holiday is morphing into something far worse: a bloodbath that could sink full-year earnings and have repercussions well into 2009. Last week alone, Circuit City filed for bankruptcy; Best Buy warned of dire holiday sales; and Macy's, Kohl's, JCPenney and Nordstrom posted sharply lower third-quarter profits. On Nov. 14, Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed consumer confidence at historically low levels.
Best Buy Senior VP-Marketing Greg Johnson All of this has left retailers to recalibrate ad spending and emphasize value -- but each is trying a different approach. Best Buy is spending less and pushing a message of reliability, while Kohl's is pouring on the holiday dollars to pitch pricing. Macy's has moved some of its allocation from the third quarter to the all-important fourth and is using a mix of image ads and promotional sells. Sears is bringing back layaway, while sibling retailer Kmart is advertising layaway for the first time in years. JCPenney is holding spending steady behind a "Style. Quality. Price matter" campaign. Best Buy Senior VP-Marketing Greg Johnson said the retailer has been forced to "dial back" spending in light of the economic meltdown. Last year it spent $136 million during the fourth quarter. "We had to right-size our marketing plan," he said. "We have maintained the heart of the plan. But some of the things ... we do each year that are a little more speculative and harder to measure, those are the things that we dialed back on." Mr. Johnson cited sponsorships on destination websites as an example. "Being present in a lot of places was important historically," he said. "But the reality was we weren't communicating something that would drive our business. ... That investment, which is relatively significant, is something that we couldn't afford in this environment." Best Buy's creative agency is Omnicom Group's BBDO, New York; digital is handled by Razorfish, Seattle and Portland, Ore. Shelling outSome retailers have managed to pump up their marketing budgets for the fourth quarter, recognizing that it will be a rough-and-tumble fight for consumer dollars. Kohl's plans to spend more this year than last, when its fourth-quarter measured media spending tallied $158 million. Macy's moved marketing dollars from the third quarter to the fourth in an effort to drive traffic around the holidays. In last year's fourth quarter, Macy's spent $341 million on measured media, according to TNS Media Intelligence. With those fourth-quarter budgets, which represent the largest chunk of any retailer's annual outlay, marketing executives are embracing a variety of approaches. Best Buy's campaign will put the emphasis on trust, a message that has gained new relevance in light of Circuit City's bankruptcy. New TV spots feature employees sharing true stories about helping consumers pick out holiday gifts. Localized web pages for individual stores also have been created. Previous holiday campaigns have focused simply on making Best Buy a gifting destination, Mr. Johnson said. "Part of being trusted is you actually have to be a part of the community," he said. Macy's is also seeking to endear itself to local communities with the "Believe" campaign, which revolves around the 1897 New York Sun editorial that declared "Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus." For each letter to Santa mailed at a Macy's, the retailer will donate $1 (up to $1 million) to the Make-a-Wish Foundation. Part of getting that message out locally is a massive newspaper campaign orchestrated with the Newspaper Association of America, said Martine Reardon, Macy's exec VP-marketing. Full-page reprints of the "Yes, Virginia" letter and ads will be carried in more than 300 papers. The campaign also pumps up the retailer's branding message at a time when competitors are shelving branding in favor of promotion. "Believe" plays up Macy's Christmas credentials -- the annual Thanksgiving Day Parade and the first in-store Santa -- and delivers a reprieve to weary shoppers, Ms. Reardon said. Price points"At some point people are going to get tired of talking about the malaise of the economy and only wanting to focus on price. They want to know that you've got some other substance," she said. Its creative agency is WPP Group's JWT, New York. Kohl's Chief Marketing Officer Julie Gardner said it's not possible for the retailer to be too value-oriented this season. Its message, "Gifts that fit your budget beautifully," will be pushed out across a variety of media. Its agency is Interpublic Group of Cos.' McCann Erickson, New York. JCPenney, meanwhile, is being careful to present actual price points rather than percentage-off messaging. Its tagline, "Style. Quality. Price matter. Every day matters," will be featured in promotional advertising. Total spending for the holiday season will be flat, said Chief Marketing Officer Mike Boylson. JCPenney spent $169 million in the fourth quarter last year. "This year we're making sure that we're razor-sharp about messaging and pricing," Mr. Boylson said. JCPenney's agency is Publicis Groupe's Saatchi & Saatchi, New York.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Monday, November 10, 2008
Bom senso e caldo de galinha não fazem mal a ninguém
Bom senso e caldo de galinha não fazem mal a ninguém
Autor: Marcos Gouvêa de Souza, diretor-geral da GS&MD
Data: 10/11/2008
Toda a discussão que se tem travado sobre os impactos do quadro econômico-financeiro global no mercado brasileiro tem sido feita com uma mescla de realismo e paixão, não necessariamente na mesma proporção, que compromete sua isenção, quando não contribui para agravar o que é inevitável.Pelo constante monitoramento que a nossa atividade profissional exige, pode-se notar uma elevada dose de preocupação, muitas vezes mesclada com desinformação, que acaba suscitando movimentos defensivos extremados, cuja maior virtude é precipitar conseqüências que de outra forma poderiam ser evitadas.No popular, definitivamente não valem as expressões “muita calma nesta hora” ou “senta que o leão é manso”, já que, em nenhuma hipótese, pode-se admitir um comportamento que possa ser confundido com inanição ou isolamento.O mundo funciona de acordo com a lei dos vasos comunicantes e os reflexos, em maior ou menor escala e profundidade, se farão sentir. Mas a desinformação pode ser fatal.A primeira e importante constatação é que até o momento, ou seja, início de novembro de 2008, como se previa, não se notaram quedas significativas nas vendas no varejo brasileiro de forma generalizada.Aspecto fundamental é entendermos que, neste conceito mais amplo, falamos do país como um todo, sendo porém claro que em determinadas regiões e segmentos existem comportamentos mais cautelosos, em especial no que envolve os segmentos de classe mais alta, os mercados mais afluentes e as regiões com forte ênfase no setor financeiro, em especial áreas específicas nas grandes capitais.Esse comportamento estável do consumo no país é verdadeiro para os setores de alimentação, vestuário, calçados, móveis e eletrodomésticos, artigos para o lar, material de construção e decoração. Por ações isoladas de alguns varejistas, por necessidade ou cautela, alterando suas políticas de crédito ou financiamento das vendas, quando outros o fazem de forma menos agressiva, existem reduções no comportamento das vendas, mas de forma pontual.O setor no qual o impacto teria sido maior, considerando as estatísticas produzidas pelas próprias entidades, é o automobilístico, que, por significar em toda sua cadeia pouco mais de 20% do PIB, e com competente capacidade de se fazer ouvido, ecoa e amplifica suas dificuldades. Esse segmento vinha com patamares de expansão de vendas, segundo os dados do IBGE, próximos a 30% e o baque na mudança de comportamento é de fato significativo, pois 70% das vendas eram financiadas em prazos que chegaram a assustar pela ousadia.Um setor que pretendia vender um recorde histórico de 3,4 milhões de veículos em 2008 não deverá alcançar o que previa e nesse momento informa um estoque acumulado de 300 mil unidades, um pouco menos de 10% da provável venda total do ano.É importante reconhecer a importância dos 121 mil funcionários das montadoras e seu papel na balança comercial, graças às suas exportações, que serão mais fortemente afetadas pela retração externa, mas sua inegável capacidade mobilizadora já conseguiu R$ 4 bilhões de empréstimos via Banco do Brasil.É fundamental, porém, lembrar que a soma dos empregos diretos de apenas dois varejistas, Grupo Pão de Açúcar e Casas Bahia, é equivalente a todo o emprego da indústria automobilística. E nem por isso abriram-se discussões para encontrar caminhos que mantenham os empregos, aspecto crítico na manutenção do consumo interno, em todos os segmentos do varejo.Existe um claro sentimento de que o consumo e as vendas deverão ser impactados de forma geral a partir do começo do próximo ano, mais diretamente nos setores mais dependentes do crédito, nos quais a conjugação de condições mais cautelosas no prazo, na concessão e nas taxas praticadas deverá ser ampliada pela redução do índice de confiança do consumidor, que, até o momento, mostrou essa tendência apenas junto aos segmentos de maior poder aquisitivo. À medida que ações de cautela, retração, ajustes e outras formas de prevenção, adequadas ou exageradas, sejam adotadas, haverá um comportamento mais refratário do consumidor nas compras, em especial as que envolvem prazos mais longos e bens de maior valor.É por conta do correto ajuste das medidas de adequação ao novo quadro que se poderá precipitar, ampliar, reduzir ou minimizar o impacto no consumo e nas vendas no mercado interno, onde se pode de alguma maneira interferir, uma vez que o cenário externo é totalmente fora de controle.Daí decorre a relevância do bom senso, do equilíbrio, da informação correta e crível, das análises isentas e das projeções bem embasadas para não reverberar o comportamento mais pessimista, quase paranóico, de alguns empresários e executivos.Com a preocupação de não parecerem mal informados, tendem a amplificar o que é pior, comportamento também compartilhado por alguns veículos de comunicação, dando um tiro no próprio pé, criando a profecia auto-realizável.Não é simples, neste momento, nadar contra a maré, contra a voz comum dos profetas do apocalipse. Mas é essencial que assim seja.Na prática, o mercado interno ainda está sob controle, mas deverá ter alguma redução nos seus níveis de crescimento à frente. O mercado externo terá tempos muito difíceis por conta da grande retração em economias mais maduras, com óbvias conseqüências na massa salarial interna.Mas é preciso muito bom senso para não potencializar o problema, transformando-o num drama sem solução. E é preciso um pensar maior e mais responsável sobre o que se fala, escreve, ecoa e repercute.Não é hora de brincar com o pessimismo.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Autor: Marcos Gouvêa de Souza, diretor-geral da GS&MD
Data: 10/11/2008
Toda a discussão que se tem travado sobre os impactos do quadro econômico-financeiro global no mercado brasileiro tem sido feita com uma mescla de realismo e paixão, não necessariamente na mesma proporção, que compromete sua isenção, quando não contribui para agravar o que é inevitável.Pelo constante monitoramento que a nossa atividade profissional exige, pode-se notar uma elevada dose de preocupação, muitas vezes mesclada com desinformação, que acaba suscitando movimentos defensivos extremados, cuja maior virtude é precipitar conseqüências que de outra forma poderiam ser evitadas.No popular, definitivamente não valem as expressões “muita calma nesta hora” ou “senta que o leão é manso”, já que, em nenhuma hipótese, pode-se admitir um comportamento que possa ser confundido com inanição ou isolamento.O mundo funciona de acordo com a lei dos vasos comunicantes e os reflexos, em maior ou menor escala e profundidade, se farão sentir. Mas a desinformação pode ser fatal.A primeira e importante constatação é que até o momento, ou seja, início de novembro de 2008, como se previa, não se notaram quedas significativas nas vendas no varejo brasileiro de forma generalizada.Aspecto fundamental é entendermos que, neste conceito mais amplo, falamos do país como um todo, sendo porém claro que em determinadas regiões e segmentos existem comportamentos mais cautelosos, em especial no que envolve os segmentos de classe mais alta, os mercados mais afluentes e as regiões com forte ênfase no setor financeiro, em especial áreas específicas nas grandes capitais.Esse comportamento estável do consumo no país é verdadeiro para os setores de alimentação, vestuário, calçados, móveis e eletrodomésticos, artigos para o lar, material de construção e decoração. Por ações isoladas de alguns varejistas, por necessidade ou cautela, alterando suas políticas de crédito ou financiamento das vendas, quando outros o fazem de forma menos agressiva, existem reduções no comportamento das vendas, mas de forma pontual.O setor no qual o impacto teria sido maior, considerando as estatísticas produzidas pelas próprias entidades, é o automobilístico, que, por significar em toda sua cadeia pouco mais de 20% do PIB, e com competente capacidade de se fazer ouvido, ecoa e amplifica suas dificuldades. Esse segmento vinha com patamares de expansão de vendas, segundo os dados do IBGE, próximos a 30% e o baque na mudança de comportamento é de fato significativo, pois 70% das vendas eram financiadas em prazos que chegaram a assustar pela ousadia.Um setor que pretendia vender um recorde histórico de 3,4 milhões de veículos em 2008 não deverá alcançar o que previa e nesse momento informa um estoque acumulado de 300 mil unidades, um pouco menos de 10% da provável venda total do ano.É importante reconhecer a importância dos 121 mil funcionários das montadoras e seu papel na balança comercial, graças às suas exportações, que serão mais fortemente afetadas pela retração externa, mas sua inegável capacidade mobilizadora já conseguiu R$ 4 bilhões de empréstimos via Banco do Brasil.É fundamental, porém, lembrar que a soma dos empregos diretos de apenas dois varejistas, Grupo Pão de Açúcar e Casas Bahia, é equivalente a todo o emprego da indústria automobilística. E nem por isso abriram-se discussões para encontrar caminhos que mantenham os empregos, aspecto crítico na manutenção do consumo interno, em todos os segmentos do varejo.Existe um claro sentimento de que o consumo e as vendas deverão ser impactados de forma geral a partir do começo do próximo ano, mais diretamente nos setores mais dependentes do crédito, nos quais a conjugação de condições mais cautelosas no prazo, na concessão e nas taxas praticadas deverá ser ampliada pela redução do índice de confiança do consumidor, que, até o momento, mostrou essa tendência apenas junto aos segmentos de maior poder aquisitivo. À medida que ações de cautela, retração, ajustes e outras formas de prevenção, adequadas ou exageradas, sejam adotadas, haverá um comportamento mais refratário do consumidor nas compras, em especial as que envolvem prazos mais longos e bens de maior valor.É por conta do correto ajuste das medidas de adequação ao novo quadro que se poderá precipitar, ampliar, reduzir ou minimizar o impacto no consumo e nas vendas no mercado interno, onde se pode de alguma maneira interferir, uma vez que o cenário externo é totalmente fora de controle.Daí decorre a relevância do bom senso, do equilíbrio, da informação correta e crível, das análises isentas e das projeções bem embasadas para não reverberar o comportamento mais pessimista, quase paranóico, de alguns empresários e executivos.Com a preocupação de não parecerem mal informados, tendem a amplificar o que é pior, comportamento também compartilhado por alguns veículos de comunicação, dando um tiro no próprio pé, criando a profecia auto-realizável.Não é simples, neste momento, nadar contra a maré, contra a voz comum dos profetas do apocalipse. Mas é essencial que assim seja.Na prática, o mercado interno ainda está sob controle, mas deverá ter alguma redução nos seus níveis de crescimento à frente. O mercado externo terá tempos muito difíceis por conta da grande retração em economias mais maduras, com óbvias conseqüências na massa salarial interna.Mas é preciso muito bom senso para não potencializar o problema, transformando-o num drama sem solução. E é preciso um pensar maior e mais responsável sobre o que se fala, escreve, ecoa e repercute.Não é hora de brincar com o pessimismo.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Consumidor brasileiro continua otimista
Consumidor brasileiro continua otimista
Apesar da crise financeira internacional, a confiança do consumidor brasileiro ficou estável em 140 pontos em outubro, de acordo com o Índice Nacional de Confiança (INC) calculado pela ACSP/Ipsos. Em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, houve um crescimento de 13 pontos no indicador. O levantamento também sondou o que os consumidores pretendem fazer com seu 13o salário: 37% dos entrevistados vão usá-lo para fazer compras, 34% pretendem pagar dívidas e 12% irão reformar a casa.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Apesar da crise financeira internacional, a confiança do consumidor brasileiro ficou estável em 140 pontos em outubro, de acordo com o Índice Nacional de Confiança (INC) calculado pela ACSP/Ipsos. Em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, houve um crescimento de 13 pontos no indicador. O levantamento também sondou o que os consumidores pretendem fazer com seu 13o salário: 37% dos entrevistados vão usá-lo para fazer compras, 34% pretendem pagar dívidas e 12% irão reformar a casa.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Friday, October 31, 2008
Repensar Marketing e Estratégia
Repensar Marketing e Estratégia
O Brasil não está em crise
Autor: Alberto Serrentino, sócio-sênior e diretor da GS&MD
Data: 31/10/2008
O atual momento vem afligindo as empresas, envolvidas na tentativa de decifrar a crise financeira internacional e seus possíveis reflexos na economia brasileira. É importante, porém, que se afirme: o Brasil não está em crise!A situação certamente inspira cautela e não pode ser subestimada. O país não está isolado do mundo e sofrerá conseqüências, mas não caminha para crise. As projeções que vêm sendo feitas nas últimas duas semanas carregam elevado grau de incerteza e alta probabilidade de erro. Não há elementos suficientes para se projetar crescimento econômico negativo para a economia brasileira. Deverá haver desaceleração no ritmo de crescimento da economia, do consumo e, conseqüentemente, do varejo, mas não é motivo para pânico.Em 2005 o PIB cresceu 3,2% e o varejo 4,8%; em 2006 o PIB cresceu 3,6% e o varejo, 6,2%. em 2007 o varejo cresceu 9,7% e deve fechar 2008 com 8% de crescimento real. Ainda que não se mantenham os níveis de crescimento atual, não significa que não haverá mercado em expansão e oportunidades para empresas sólidas e bem posicionadas. Além do mais, nenhum outro país no mundo tem a capacidade de empresas e gestores brasileiros em lidar com mudanças bruscas de ambiente, adaptar-se e encontrar alternativas para lidar com adversidades.
Reflexos para o varejo – o desempenho do varejo depende de crescimento econômico, evolução de emprego, renda, massa salarial, crédito e confiança. O crescimento econômico deverá ser menor em 2009 do que foi nos últimos dois anos, mas não há motivos para crer que não será positivo. O crédito deverá estar mais limitado e caro (por encurtamento de prazos e eventuais aumentos de taxas). Em se mantendo os níveis de emprego, renda e massa salarial, o varejo deverá continuar crescendo e poderá crescer acima do PIB.O impacto será diferente entre categorias e setores. Os bens duráveis deverão receber o maior impacto, pela forte dependência do crédito. Particularmente, produtos de linha marrom e informática devem ser mais impactados em função da desvalorização cambial. Porém, essas categorias foram as de melhor desempenho nos últimos anos e mesmo que cresçam em ritmo menor, estarão em patamares elevados.Os bens não-duráveis, como alimentos, cuidados pessoais e limpeza, podem manter desempenho positivo. Finalmente, os semiduráveis, como vestuário e calçados, podem até se beneficiar do cenário, caso as condições de renda e emprego se mantenham favoráveis e o crédito iniba a compra de duráveis.As empresas de varejo provavelmente estarão mais cautelosas em seus planos de expansão, mais criteriosas nos investimentos e mais conservadoras na gestão de crédito e de caixa. Mas é bom lembrar que momentos difíceis também geram oportunidades. No mercado norte-americano, a despeito da turbulência, o presidente do Wal-Mart declarou que esta é a hora da empresa. As vendas estão crescendo, haverá abertura de 191 lojas em 2009 e espera-se ganho de participação de mercado. No Brasil a empresa manterá seus planos de expansão e investimentos previstos para 2009.Quando houve o advento da crise energética no Brasil em 2001 (o “apagão”), previu-se uma forte retração no consumo. Alguns varejistas especializados em eletroeletrônicos, que foram afetados pela situação, redirecionaram esforços para venda de móveis e de produtos com menor consumo energético. Assim, redes como Casas Bahia, Magazine Luiza e Insinuante cresceram durante a adversidade.Consumidores redefinem constantemente as escalas de valores em seus processos decisórios, em função da oferta, conjuntura ou inovações. Na atual conjuntura, tornar-se-ão mais racionais, rigorosos e exigentes, valorizando propostas de valor consistentes e marcas que entregam o que cumprem. Este é o momento de buscar ganhos de eficiência operacional, sem perder de vista a capacidade de diferenciação e atração de um consumidor que estará mais seletivo e ponderado. Esta é a hora das empresas de valor sobressaírem-se e fortalecerem-se no mercado.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
O Brasil não está em crise
Autor: Alberto Serrentino, sócio-sênior e diretor da GS&MD
Data: 31/10/2008
O atual momento vem afligindo as empresas, envolvidas na tentativa de decifrar a crise financeira internacional e seus possíveis reflexos na economia brasileira. É importante, porém, que se afirme: o Brasil não está em crise!A situação certamente inspira cautela e não pode ser subestimada. O país não está isolado do mundo e sofrerá conseqüências, mas não caminha para crise. As projeções que vêm sendo feitas nas últimas duas semanas carregam elevado grau de incerteza e alta probabilidade de erro. Não há elementos suficientes para se projetar crescimento econômico negativo para a economia brasileira. Deverá haver desaceleração no ritmo de crescimento da economia, do consumo e, conseqüentemente, do varejo, mas não é motivo para pânico.Em 2005 o PIB cresceu 3,2% e o varejo 4,8%; em 2006 o PIB cresceu 3,6% e o varejo, 6,2%. em 2007 o varejo cresceu 9,7% e deve fechar 2008 com 8% de crescimento real. Ainda que não se mantenham os níveis de crescimento atual, não significa que não haverá mercado em expansão e oportunidades para empresas sólidas e bem posicionadas. Além do mais, nenhum outro país no mundo tem a capacidade de empresas e gestores brasileiros em lidar com mudanças bruscas de ambiente, adaptar-se e encontrar alternativas para lidar com adversidades.
Reflexos para o varejo – o desempenho do varejo depende de crescimento econômico, evolução de emprego, renda, massa salarial, crédito e confiança. O crescimento econômico deverá ser menor em 2009 do que foi nos últimos dois anos, mas não há motivos para crer que não será positivo. O crédito deverá estar mais limitado e caro (por encurtamento de prazos e eventuais aumentos de taxas). Em se mantendo os níveis de emprego, renda e massa salarial, o varejo deverá continuar crescendo e poderá crescer acima do PIB.O impacto será diferente entre categorias e setores. Os bens duráveis deverão receber o maior impacto, pela forte dependência do crédito. Particularmente, produtos de linha marrom e informática devem ser mais impactados em função da desvalorização cambial. Porém, essas categorias foram as de melhor desempenho nos últimos anos e mesmo que cresçam em ritmo menor, estarão em patamares elevados.Os bens não-duráveis, como alimentos, cuidados pessoais e limpeza, podem manter desempenho positivo. Finalmente, os semiduráveis, como vestuário e calçados, podem até se beneficiar do cenário, caso as condições de renda e emprego se mantenham favoráveis e o crédito iniba a compra de duráveis.As empresas de varejo provavelmente estarão mais cautelosas em seus planos de expansão, mais criteriosas nos investimentos e mais conservadoras na gestão de crédito e de caixa. Mas é bom lembrar que momentos difíceis também geram oportunidades. No mercado norte-americano, a despeito da turbulência, o presidente do Wal-Mart declarou que esta é a hora da empresa. As vendas estão crescendo, haverá abertura de 191 lojas em 2009 e espera-se ganho de participação de mercado. No Brasil a empresa manterá seus planos de expansão e investimentos previstos para 2009.Quando houve o advento da crise energética no Brasil em 2001 (o “apagão”), previu-se uma forte retração no consumo. Alguns varejistas especializados em eletroeletrônicos, que foram afetados pela situação, redirecionaram esforços para venda de móveis e de produtos com menor consumo energético. Assim, redes como Casas Bahia, Magazine Luiza e Insinuante cresceram durante a adversidade.Consumidores redefinem constantemente as escalas de valores em seus processos decisórios, em função da oferta, conjuntura ou inovações. Na atual conjuntura, tornar-se-ão mais racionais, rigorosos e exigentes, valorizando propostas de valor consistentes e marcas que entregam o que cumprem. Este é o momento de buscar ganhos de eficiência operacional, sem perder de vista a capacidade de diferenciação e atração de um consumidor que estará mais seletivo e ponderado. Esta é a hora das empresas de valor sobressaírem-se e fortalecerem-se no mercado.
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
Latin America: The Case for Caution
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H
October 20, 2008
Economics
Weekly Spotlight
Latin America: The Case for Caution by Gray Newman
As the downturn goes global, Latin America has quickly
lost its “safe haven” status. Indeed, during the past month,
the turmoil in the region has moved beyond falling stock
markets to broader financial markets. Derivative deals gone
bad have already hit some of the largest publicly traded
companies in Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile commercial paper
markets have begun to freeze, trading lines have been reduced,
and a bout of violent currency moves have forced authorities
from Chile and Brazil to Colombia and Mexico to rethink their
exchange rate policies. In the case of Mexico, the rethinking
required the authorities to spend more than 13% of
international reserves in less than two weeks in an attempt to
stabilize the peso. As of October 17, the Mexican peso still
traded near 12.8 per dollar.
Amidst all of the turmoil, caution seems to be the
watchword for Latin watchers. Yet I keep wondering if now
is the time to turn more optimistic and to instead highlight not
only the structural case for Latin America, but also the fact that
the region appears to be in better shape to deal with the current
global downturn than at any time in the past half century.
After all, the time to turn cautious on Latin America was
late last year or early this year when five years of
above-trend global growth had produced one of the best
growth records for Latin America (and emerging economies) in
decades and had, in turn, swollen the ranks of the emerging
market fans.
By late last year, it seemed like everything was in place for
disappointment. On the one hand, our US economics team
was warning of an important downturn in US consumption, and
on the other hand, the advocates for emerging markets and
Latin America had begun to argue a new “safe haven” had
been discovered which would protect investors from US turmoil
if it began to spread. Any doubts about whether we should turn
cautious were resolved once I began to hear the “safe haven”
camp arguments.
Now that the markets have turned and the economies in
the region have begun to weaken, it seems as if all the
“easy extrapolators” are condemning the region to doom.
Where were they before the downturn? Extrapolation is always
the simplest, easiest form of analysis but leaves me
uncomfortable.
But I am not willing to champion Latin America’s
structural story over the cyclical risks, at least not yet, for
three reasons. First, I am concerned that the deterioration in
the region is just getting underway, particularly in the region’s
largest economy, Brazil. And that means that there are plenty
of unknowns to work through after years of abundance.
Second, I am concerned that monetary policy may be of little
aid as the region slows. And third, I am concerned that the
authorities may find that their freedom to use fiscal policy may
be much more constrained than previously thought.
Downturn just starting
The downturn in Latin America is just getting underway.
While Mexico, Colombia and Chile are already slumping, Brazil
and Peru are still posting strong numbers. Peru posted 8.9%
real GDP growth in the month of August, while Brazil saw GDP
accelerate during the first half of the year, reaching 6.1% in the
second quarter, while domestic demand has been growing at
8.5% or higher. Brazil saw retail sales growing at almost 10%
in August. Likewise, industrial production data remained
resilient during much of the third quarter.
It has only been in the past few weeks that we have begun
to see important signs leading to a softening in Brazil. As
Marcelo Carvalho wrote last week, the first signs appeared in
mid-September when international trade financing lines fell to
roughly half of their level earlier in the month. Marcelo notes that
exporters – andcompanies in general - are reportedly lining up
at the national development bank (BNDES), asking for credit.
Meanwhile he cites local press reports that suggest a significant
tightening in local financing, as banks apparently have turned
more cautious in their lending decisions.
In turn, not only long-term financing,but even working capital
seems to have become harder to obtain.
As companies revise down their capex plans, and consumers
turn more cautious, sales of credit-sensitive durable goods
(such as automobiles) look likely to take a hit soon. And there
is talk that Brazil’s agricultural sector may see financing
shortages hitting fertilizer and seed purchases, which could
produce lower crops at the time of harvest. Meanwhile
anecdotal evidence for car sales suggests a sudden and
significant downturn in recent weeks.
And while the downturn may just be getting underway in
Brazil, worrisome pressure points are already emerging
from the currency’s abrupt weakening. We are already seeing
signs in Brazil where years of currency appreciation appears to
have lulled some companies into derivative arrangements that
have begun to turn the other way and hit earnings. Although it
is still too early to estimate how widespread those contracts
have been, the uncertainty is creating difficulties for companies
to access credit. In addition, while Brazil’s central bank took
measures last month designed to allow for larger banks to buy
credit portfolios of the smaller banks, the move served as a
reminder of the importance of international funding of many of
Brazil’s smaller banks.
While much of the demand for dollars may have come as
derivative structures forced the hand of Brazilian
corporates, Brazil’s sharp rise in portfolio flows in recent
years also poses a risk. Despite the strong uptick in foreign
direct investment, combined equity and fixed income flows
exceed that of direct investment . Through
August, Brazil had received nearly $33 billion in portfolio flows
during the past twelve months, just above the $32.7 billion in
direct investment. Our concern is that as the economy slows to
a pace of growth (2% on average in 2009e) below the market’s
consensus, both direct investment and equity portfolio flows
could soften and put more pressure on the exchange rate.
Foreigners currently hold just over one-third of the Brazilian
local stock market as of August. I doubt that Brazil is in the
“second inning” as our global currency strategist Stephen Jen
suggests for EM currencies , but I am
concerned that we are likely to continue to see pressure on the
exchange rate in the coming months as Brazil’s growth slumps
more sharply than most seem to expect.
At first glance, it would seem that Mexico should have
been better prepared for the coming slowdown. After all,
US weakness has already fed through to a downturn in
Mexican industrial activity, which has contracted in every
month since May. And unlike Brazil, Mexico would appear to
have less room to fall—its economy was only growing just over
2% in the first half of the year compared with Brazil’s 6% plus
pace. But the sudden move in the Mexican peso hit some of
Mexico’s best known corporates hard. In turn, the derivative
damage has contributed to the peso coming under additional
pressure, prompting the central bank to directly intervene in
currency markets with sales of $11.2 billion in dollars since
October 8. And the turmoil among corporates with exposure to
derivative losses has contributed to local commercial paper
markets coming to a near standstill.
Although the move in the Mexican peso---nearly 30% weaker
in mid-October compared with its average of the previous two
months—is not that much greater than the moves seen in
Brazil, Colombia or much of the region, the damage on local
sentiment appears to have been much greater. While a
Brazilian real exchange rate at 2.15 or 2.35 represents an
abrupt decline from levels of 1.60 seen in July or August,
Brazilians can remember in 2005 and indeed in 2001 or 2002
when the exchange rate had been at these levels. In contrast,
with the Mexican peso trading during the past decade within a
narrow range from 9 to 10 and then from 10 to 11, the move to
13 and above is seen almost as a promise that has been
betrayed. I fear that the unprecedented exchange rate
readings leave local economic agents more vulnerable to
turmoil. Indeed, I suspect that this is what prompted Banco de
Mexico to engage in massive US dollar sales in an attempt to
break a dangerous cycle of currency weakness begetting
turmoil, which in turn could produce even more demand for
dollars.
Given all of the unknowns regarding the duration of the
downturn in the US and the globe, it seems too early to
begin to look beyond the cycle in Latin America, especially
given the turmoil that we have already seen in the region in the
past weeks. The events of the past few weeks should serve as
a reminder of how quickly the “safe haven” can disappear once
the inflows of abundance have reversed.
Monetary muscle?
The second reason for caution is my concern that central
banks in Latin America may find that they have limited
scope to ease monetary policy faced with one of the most
serious growth challenges in decades. The rapid weakness in
currencies throughout Latin America could easily replace food
and energy quotes as the new threat to inflation targets in the
region.
At a time when real economic activity is coming under
siege, it is difficult to imagine central banks wanting to
keep interest rates high. Around the globe, central banks in
developed economies are easing interest rates. Real policy
rates around the globe had already turned negative at the
beginning of the year in every region except Latin America (see
Exhibit 3). That would suggest that Latin America has room to
ease rates aggressively. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to be
the case in the region’s largest economy, Brazil. Marcelo
Carvalho argues that while the global downturn is deflationary
for the global economy, it is not necessarily so for countries like
Brazil that are facing currency weakness. Indeed, Marcelo
argues that while the central bank may adopt a more pragmatic
approach faced with a much weaker economy, that is only
likely to mean that it doesn’t hike as much as strict adherence
to its inflation target would suggest. In the best of cases, we
see no easing until late next year in Brazil.
Why the contrast between Brazil and the developed
world? In part, because Brazil and much of Latin America
has been the epicenter of inflation not that long ago.
While Germany suffered in the 1920’s and Hungary
in the 1940’s, much of Latin America faced a serious bout of
hyperinflation in the 1980’s and into the early 1990’s. Those
memories have taken their toll on central bank policy makers —
leaving central bankers in the region more willing to respond to
an uptick in prices to limit the risks that a change in relative
prices unleashes a nasty wage-price spiral. Given the track
record, an accommodating central bank in the region that is
easing interest rates as the exchange rate is under pressure
can soon find that its own actions are pressuring the exchange
rate even weaker. Pass-through had gone dormant in the
region, but central bankers are on alert to see if the abrupt
currency moves begin to put pressure on inflation and
expectations despite the weakening in the economy to come.
Fiscal room?
Now is the time for counter-cyclical fiscal policy if there
has ever been a time. But I am cautious as to how much
space the authorities have to engage in fiscal stimulus.
Across the region, the abundance windfall has translated
into a sharp rise in fiscal spending in recent years. Chile is
the only country where the windfall produced a sharp rise in the
budget surplus. And therein lies the problem. With the
exception of Chile, an increase in spending is likely to turn
modest budget deficits into much larger deficits and hence
require that sovereigns increase their reliance on capital
markets precisely at a time when financing is becoming scare
and expensive.
Moreover, we estimate that the budget windfall by
mid-2008 had reached close to 3.9% of GDP among five of
Latin America’s largest economies or nearly $150 billion.
That means that if growth or commodity prices were to return to
pre-abundance rates, the fiscal shortfall would be in the
magnitude of 4.1% of GDP. That is the size of
the spending cuts that the region’s authorities would have to
engineer in order to maintain the current fiscal balance.
Alternatively, the gap represents a rough measure of the
magnitude of new taxes that would have to be raised. In reality,
it suggests an even more daunting task for the fiscal
authorities: just maintaining the current fiscal mix will likely
produce a much larger fiscal deficit.
Bottom-line
Faced with a global downturn, the region’s largest
economies are likely to face a relatively normal business
cycle rather than a full-fledged crisis. That is good news
and represents a graduation from the past for some in the
region. But be wary of over-emphasis on the region’s
resilience. After five years of above trend global growth, the
region is facing its most serious threat in decades and no one is
immune to the slump. Moreover, throughout the region,
authorities may find that the arsenal of policy tools at their
disposal is more limited than they hoped. There is still room for
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
caution.
October 20, 2008
Economics
Weekly Spotlight
Latin America: The Case for Caution by Gray Newman
As the downturn goes global, Latin America has quickly
lost its “safe haven” status. Indeed, during the past month,
the turmoil in the region has moved beyond falling stock
markets to broader financial markets. Derivative deals gone
bad have already hit some of the largest publicly traded
companies in Brazil and Mexico. Meanwhile commercial paper
markets have begun to freeze, trading lines have been reduced,
and a bout of violent currency moves have forced authorities
from Chile and Brazil to Colombia and Mexico to rethink their
exchange rate policies. In the case of Mexico, the rethinking
required the authorities to spend more than 13% of
international reserves in less than two weeks in an attempt to
stabilize the peso. As of October 17, the Mexican peso still
traded near 12.8 per dollar.
Amidst all of the turmoil, caution seems to be the
watchword for Latin watchers. Yet I keep wondering if now
is the time to turn more optimistic and to instead highlight not
only the structural case for Latin America, but also the fact that
the region appears to be in better shape to deal with the current
global downturn than at any time in the past half century.
After all, the time to turn cautious on Latin America was
late last year or early this year when five years of
above-trend global growth had produced one of the best
growth records for Latin America (and emerging economies) in
decades and had, in turn, swollen the ranks of the emerging
market fans.
By late last year, it seemed like everything was in place for
disappointment. On the one hand, our US economics team
was warning of an important downturn in US consumption, and
on the other hand, the advocates for emerging markets and
Latin America had begun to argue a new “safe haven” had
been discovered which would protect investors from US turmoil
if it began to spread. Any doubts about whether we should turn
cautious were resolved once I began to hear the “safe haven”
camp arguments.
Now that the markets have turned and the economies in
the region have begun to weaken, it seems as if all the
“easy extrapolators” are condemning the region to doom.
Where were they before the downturn? Extrapolation is always
the simplest, easiest form of analysis but leaves me
uncomfortable.
But I am not willing to champion Latin America’s
structural story over the cyclical risks, at least not yet, for
three reasons. First, I am concerned that the deterioration in
the region is just getting underway, particularly in the region’s
largest economy, Brazil. And that means that there are plenty
of unknowns to work through after years of abundance.
Second, I am concerned that monetary policy may be of little
aid as the region slows. And third, I am concerned that the
authorities may find that their freedom to use fiscal policy may
be much more constrained than previously thought.
Downturn just starting
The downturn in Latin America is just getting underway.
While Mexico, Colombia and Chile are already slumping, Brazil
and Peru are still posting strong numbers. Peru posted 8.9%
real GDP growth in the month of August, while Brazil saw GDP
accelerate during the first half of the year, reaching 6.1% in the
second quarter, while domestic demand has been growing at
8.5% or higher. Brazil saw retail sales growing at almost 10%
in August. Likewise, industrial production data remained
resilient during much of the third quarter.
It has only been in the past few weeks that we have begun
to see important signs leading to a softening in Brazil. As
Marcelo Carvalho wrote last week, the first signs appeared in
mid-September when international trade financing lines fell to
roughly half of their level earlier in the month. Marcelo notes that
exporters – andcompanies in general - are reportedly lining up
at the national development bank (BNDES), asking for credit.
Meanwhile he cites local press reports that suggest a significant
tightening in local financing, as banks apparently have turned
more cautious in their lending decisions.
In turn, not only long-term financing,but even working capital
seems to have become harder to obtain.
As companies revise down their capex plans, and consumers
turn more cautious, sales of credit-sensitive durable goods
(such as automobiles) look likely to take a hit soon. And there
is talk that Brazil’s agricultural sector may see financing
shortages hitting fertilizer and seed purchases, which could
produce lower crops at the time of harvest. Meanwhile
anecdotal evidence for car sales suggests a sudden and
significant downturn in recent weeks.
And while the downturn may just be getting underway in
Brazil, worrisome pressure points are already emerging
from the currency’s abrupt weakening. We are already seeing
signs in Brazil where years of currency appreciation appears to
have lulled some companies into derivative arrangements that
have begun to turn the other way and hit earnings. Although it
is still too early to estimate how widespread those contracts
have been, the uncertainty is creating difficulties for companies
to access credit. In addition, while Brazil’s central bank took
measures last month designed to allow for larger banks to buy
credit portfolios of the smaller banks, the move served as a
reminder of the importance of international funding of many of
Brazil’s smaller banks.
While much of the demand for dollars may have come as
derivative structures forced the hand of Brazilian
corporates, Brazil’s sharp rise in portfolio flows in recent
years also poses a risk. Despite the strong uptick in foreign
direct investment, combined equity and fixed income flows
exceed that of direct investment . Through
August, Brazil had received nearly $33 billion in portfolio flows
during the past twelve months, just above the $32.7 billion in
direct investment. Our concern is that as the economy slows to
a pace of growth (2% on average in 2009e) below the market’s
consensus, both direct investment and equity portfolio flows
could soften and put more pressure on the exchange rate.
Foreigners currently hold just over one-third of the Brazilian
local stock market as of August. I doubt that Brazil is in the
“second inning” as our global currency strategist Stephen Jen
suggests for EM currencies , but I am
concerned that we are likely to continue to see pressure on the
exchange rate in the coming months as Brazil’s growth slumps
more sharply than most seem to expect.
At first glance, it would seem that Mexico should have
been better prepared for the coming slowdown. After all,
US weakness has already fed through to a downturn in
Mexican industrial activity, which has contracted in every
month since May. And unlike Brazil, Mexico would appear to
have less room to fall—its economy was only growing just over
2% in the first half of the year compared with Brazil’s 6% plus
pace. But the sudden move in the Mexican peso hit some of
Mexico’s best known corporates hard. In turn, the derivative
damage has contributed to the peso coming under additional
pressure, prompting the central bank to directly intervene in
currency markets with sales of $11.2 billion in dollars since
October 8. And the turmoil among corporates with exposure to
derivative losses has contributed to local commercial paper
markets coming to a near standstill.
Although the move in the Mexican peso---nearly 30% weaker
in mid-October compared with its average of the previous two
months—is not that much greater than the moves seen in
Brazil, Colombia or much of the region, the damage on local
sentiment appears to have been much greater. While a
Brazilian real exchange rate at 2.15 or 2.35 represents an
abrupt decline from levels of 1.60 seen in July or August,
Brazilians can remember in 2005 and indeed in 2001 or 2002
when the exchange rate had been at these levels. In contrast,
with the Mexican peso trading during the past decade within a
narrow range from 9 to 10 and then from 10 to 11, the move to
13 and above is seen almost as a promise that has been
betrayed. I fear that the unprecedented exchange rate
readings leave local economic agents more vulnerable to
turmoil. Indeed, I suspect that this is what prompted Banco de
Mexico to engage in massive US dollar sales in an attempt to
break a dangerous cycle of currency weakness begetting
turmoil, which in turn could produce even more demand for
dollars.
Given all of the unknowns regarding the duration of the
downturn in the US and the globe, it seems too early to
begin to look beyond the cycle in Latin America, especially
given the turmoil that we have already seen in the region in the
past weeks. The events of the past few weeks should serve as
a reminder of how quickly the “safe haven” can disappear once
the inflows of abundance have reversed.
Monetary muscle?
The second reason for caution is my concern that central
banks in Latin America may find that they have limited
scope to ease monetary policy faced with one of the most
serious growth challenges in decades. The rapid weakness in
currencies throughout Latin America could easily replace food
and energy quotes as the new threat to inflation targets in the
region.
At a time when real economic activity is coming under
siege, it is difficult to imagine central banks wanting to
keep interest rates high. Around the globe, central banks in
developed economies are easing interest rates. Real policy
rates around the globe had already turned negative at the
beginning of the year in every region except Latin America (see
Exhibit 3). That would suggest that Latin America has room to
ease rates aggressively. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to be
the case in the region’s largest economy, Brazil. Marcelo
Carvalho argues that while the global downturn is deflationary
for the global economy, it is not necessarily so for countries like
Brazil that are facing currency weakness. Indeed, Marcelo
argues that while the central bank may adopt a more pragmatic
approach faced with a much weaker economy, that is only
likely to mean that it doesn’t hike as much as strict adherence
to its inflation target would suggest. In the best of cases, we
see no easing until late next year in Brazil.
Why the contrast between Brazil and the developed
world? In part, because Brazil and much of Latin America
has been the epicenter of inflation not that long ago.
While Germany suffered in the 1920’s and Hungary
in the 1940’s, much of Latin America faced a serious bout of
hyperinflation in the 1980’s and into the early 1990’s. Those
memories have taken their toll on central bank policy makers —
leaving central bankers in the region more willing to respond to
an uptick in prices to limit the risks that a change in relative
prices unleashes a nasty wage-price spiral. Given the track
record, an accommodating central bank in the region that is
easing interest rates as the exchange rate is under pressure
can soon find that its own actions are pressuring the exchange
rate even weaker. Pass-through had gone dormant in the
region, but central bankers are on alert to see if the abrupt
currency moves begin to put pressure on inflation and
expectations despite the weakening in the economy to come.
Fiscal room?
Now is the time for counter-cyclical fiscal policy if there
has ever been a time. But I am cautious as to how much
space the authorities have to engage in fiscal stimulus.
Across the region, the abundance windfall has translated
into a sharp rise in fiscal spending in recent years. Chile is
the only country where the windfall produced a sharp rise in the
budget surplus. And therein lies the problem. With the
exception of Chile, an increase in spending is likely to turn
modest budget deficits into much larger deficits and hence
require that sovereigns increase their reliance on capital
markets precisely at a time when financing is becoming scare
and expensive.
Moreover, we estimate that the budget windfall by
mid-2008 had reached close to 3.9% of GDP among five of
Latin America’s largest economies or nearly $150 billion.
That means that if growth or commodity prices were to return to
pre-abundance rates, the fiscal shortfall would be in the
magnitude of 4.1% of GDP. That is the size of
the spending cuts that the region’s authorities would have to
engineer in order to maintain the current fiscal balance.
Alternatively, the gap represents a rough measure of the
magnitude of new taxes that would have to be raised. In reality,
it suggests an even more daunting task for the fiscal
authorities: just maintaining the current fiscal mix will likely
produce a much larger fiscal deficit.
Bottom-line
Faced with a global downturn, the region’s largest
economies are likely to face a relatively normal business
cycle rather than a full-fledged crisis. That is good news
and represents a graduation from the past for some in the
region. But be wary of over-emphasis on the region’s
resilience. After five years of above trend global growth, the
region is facing its most serious threat in decades and no one is
immune to the slump. Moreover, throughout the region,
authorities may find that the arsenal of policy tools at their
disposal is more limited than they hoped. There is still room for
(posted by Katya Hochleitner)
caution.
Vendas dos supermercados crescem 5,53%
Vendas dos supermercados crescem 5,53%
As vendas dos supermercados brasileiros tiveram em setembro uma alta de 5,53% em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, em termos reais, de acordo com a Associação Brasileira de Supermercados (Abras). Em relação a agosto, houve queda de 5,63%. No ano, o setor acumula uma alta de 8,93%, em valores deflacionados pelo IPCA do IBGE. A entidade considerou bastante positiva a manutenção do crescimento, mesmo com o vento contrário vindo do cenário internacional. No mês passado, a Abras disse que espera para o ano uma expansão em torno de 8% nas vendas do setor.
(posted by KAtya Hochleitner)
As vendas dos supermercados brasileiros tiveram em setembro uma alta de 5,53% em relação ao mesmo mês do ano passado, em termos reais, de acordo com a Associação Brasileira de Supermercados (Abras). Em relação a agosto, houve queda de 5,63%. No ano, o setor acumula uma alta de 8,93%, em valores deflacionados pelo IPCA do IBGE. A entidade considerou bastante positiva a manutenção do crescimento, mesmo com o vento contrário vindo do cenário internacional. No mês passado, a Abras disse que espera para o ano uma expansão em torno de 8% nas vendas do setor.
(posted by KAtya Hochleitner)
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